Farmers Insurance Open Odds Preview

Farmers Insurance Open Odds Preview

Setting the scene

The Farmers Insurance Open, originally known as the San Diego Open and first held in 1952, is now in its 70th year. Since 1968, it has been held at Torrey Pines. The event is split between two courses, with the entire field playing both the North and South Courses during the first two days before the weekend action takes place entirely on the South Course, which is more complex and longer. Last year’s US Open was held on the South Course, which was won by Jon Rahm, the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open winner.

This event, in my opinion, is the actual start of the PGA TOUR season since it attracts big names, a large prize pool, and a challenging test, all of which are things that many golf fans have been seeking. A full field of 156 players will compete in the Farmers Insurance Open in 2022. Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tony Finau are among the top players in the field.

Last year, Patrick Reed captured his 9th PGA Tour title by winning the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished with a -4 (68) in the final round for a tournament total of -14. (274). Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau were among five players who finished five strokes behind him.

Betting Angles

It’s a Very Short Game

Last year’s champion, Reed, was ranked first, and five of the previous six winners have finished fourth or better, with nine of the last ten winners finishing in the top ten for Putting Average. Last year, Reed gained about six strokes around the green (ranking first), and Leishman earned over eight strokes putting (ranking first). That pretty much sums up the venue. The key to victory at Torrey Pines is a magical touch on and around the greens.

Previous Tournament Form

Last year’s winner, Reed, had finished sixth a year prior, while the previous year’s winner, Leishman, was previously second in the tournament. And they weren’t the first to express their enthusiasm for the location.

It’s Not How You Start – It’s How You Finish

Two years ago, Leishman was 17th and six shots down at the midway point, and he was still four laps down before round four. And he’s far from the only champion who overcame a shaky start to the competition. Incredibly, after a one-over-par round on the South Course in 2018, Jason Day was tied for 113th and eight strokes off the lead, and Rahm was tied for 77th and seven strokes off the lead after round one five years ago.

Luck of the Draw

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out the draw. The last three winners started on the North Course, which used to be a disadvantage because the previous eight champions had all started on the South Course. Is this a three-year blip or a pattern shift?

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In-Play Tactics

Reed is the first first-round leader to win since 1996, and Tiger Woods (2008 and 2013) and Justin Rose (three years ago) are the only midway leads to succeed. Reed was second halfway through the tournament before taking the lead after round three, but third-round leads tend to suffer here and are typically worth taking on.

Horses for courses

The Farmers Insurance Open will be held across two courses, as is customary. The tournament will be held on the South Course, which also hosted the US Open last year, with the North Course being used for the opening few days. The golfers will play one round on each course over the first 36 holes, as is customary for this event before the South takes over for days three and four.

Torrey Pines, about 16 miles north of downtown San Diego, is one of the most famous golf courses in the world. It's undeniably a course where golfers must struggle and survive the frequently harsh weather conditions that blow in from the Pacific. Both the South and North courses have undergone extensive modifications in recent years.

Several greens were moved closer to hazards like canyons, and every putting surface was re-contoured to accommodate multiple pin placements. The South Course's undulating greens are smaller than those on the North Course, which was redone six years ago by Tom Weiskopf. Weiskopf expanded the size of the greens by about 20-30 percent, bringing them to around 6,400 square feet. Even though both courses are par 72, the South is significantly more complex and typically averages roughly two strokes per round higher. On either layout, water is not a concern.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm +750
Justin Thomas +1200
Xander Schauffele +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Dustin Johnson +1800
Bryson DeChambeau +1800
Daniel Berger +2000
Sam Burns +2500
Tony Finau +2800
Sungjae Im +2800
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Will Zalatoris +3000
Jordan Spieth +3000
Brooks Koepka +3300
Marc Leishman +3500
Patrick Reed +4000
Corey Conners +4000
Talor Gooch +5000
Si-Woo Kim +5000
Matthew Wolff +6000
MacKenzie Hughes +6600
Joaquin Niemann +6600
Justin Rose +6600
Lanto Griffin +6600
Ryan Palmer +6600
Maverick McNealy +6600
Keegan Bradley +6600
Max Homa +6600
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6600
Billy Horschel +6600
Jason Day +8000
Aaron Wise +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Luke List +8000
Cam Davis +9000
Cameron Tringale +9000
Keith Mitchell +9000
Alex Noren +9000
Francesco Molinari +9000
Brandt Snedeker +10000
Mito Pereira +10000
Joel Dahmen +12500
Hudson Swafford +12500
Adam Hadwin +12500
Jhonattan Vegas +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Cameron Champ +12500
Joseph Bramlett +12500
Aaron Rai +12500
Carlos Ortiz +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +15000
Michael Thompson +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Sebastian Munoz +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Henrik Norlander +15000
Adam Svensson +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Kevin Streelman +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Davis Riley +17500
Kyle Stanley +20000
Hayden Buckley +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
Stephan Jaeger +20000
Lee Hodges +20000
C.T. Pan +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Vincent Whaley +20000
Rory Sabbatini +20000
Danny Lee +20000
Dylan Frittelli +20000
JJ Spaun +20000
Adam Long +20000

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My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

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