Admirable at the American
It was an admirable week last week as both of our selections tied in 14th. However, I can’t help feeling somewhat disappointed, especially with Jon Rahm. Rahm was in prime position to mount an assault on the top five heading into the last round, but he failed to impress and carded a one-under round to finish tamely.
Our attention turns to the Famers Insurance Open this week. With two solid picks last week, we have a platform to go on and find our first winner of the calendar year. We will begin, as always, by taking a look at the history of the tournament as we start to build this week’s BeerLife profile.
The History
The Farmers Insurance Open is the PGA Tour’s event in the San Diego area. The tournament is the second of the West Coast Swing, which takes place in California and Arizona. In 1952, the Farmers Insurance Open was renamed the San Diego Open and became a PGA Tour event. The tournament has changed locations over the years, although it has always been held at Torrey Pines Golf Courses.
During the first two rounds of the tournament at Torrey Pines, the PGA Tour has used both courses simultaneously. Each day, 156 participants are split between the North and South Courses for the first two rounds. On each course, each player receives one qualifying round. Then, after the cut, the top 65 players and ties will play the next two rounds on the South Course.
Tiger Woods has won this tournament more times than any other golfer, with a total of seven victories. With three victories, Phil Mickelson has the second-highest win total in the event.
Let’s turn our attention to the form of the previous five winners, analyze their rounds and see if we can find some crucial links to begin our BeerLife profile.
Past Results
2021 Patrick Reed – 274 – Form CUT/21/10/14
2020 Marc Leishman – 273 – Form 28/69/43/3
2019 Justin Rose – 267 – Form 34/3/3/4
2018 Jason Day – 278 – Form 11/11/17/4
2017 Jon Rahm – 275 – Form 34/8/50/15
The Course
The North and South courses will alternate for the first two rounds, while the third and final rounds will be held on the South. The South course is one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour, with tight Kikuyu fairways and punitive rough.
The putting surface is one of the most significant variations between the two courses, with Poa annua on the South and Bentgrass on the north. This week, accuracy on the putting surfaces is a must, so look for the game’s best ball strikers to be towards the top of the scoreboard on Sunday.
The weather conditions look ideal this week which will help give the south course at Torrey Pines is challenging enough without having to deal with adverse weather conditions.
The Field
The Farmers Insurance Open has traditionally felt like the unofficial start of the PGA Tour season, not just because of the challenge of the home course, Torrey Pines, but also because of the field’s strength. However, this year’s field could be one of the best in the event’s history.
Patrick Reed will become the first golfer since Tiger Woods (2007-08) to win the Farmers Insurance Open in consecutive years if he finishes first this week at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open. However, if Reed wants to rewrite history, he’ll have to beat several credible candidates. The top-ranked player in the world, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele, are among the veterans vying to dethrone Reed and win the Farmers Insurance Open 2022.
Key Stats
We run each player in the field through our BeerLife profile analysis to develop our selections. This is what we are looking for this week:
Flurried Finish – Looking over the rounds of the past five winners, it’s clear that finishing strong is vital here. Especially when you consider four of the last six winners trailed going into the final round.
Final Round Scoring Average
- Rory Sabbatini
- Shane Lowry
- Collin Morikawa
- Gary Woodland
- Xander Schauffele
Bombing Along – While this isn’t always completely necessary, it can certainly help on this long course. Four of the last ten winners have ranked first or second for driving distance.
Driving Distance
- Cameron Young
- Matthew Wolff
- Joseph Bramlett
- Chan Kim
- Like List
Scrambling to Victory – This was a key stat last year and could help again this year. Last year’s winner Patrick Reed ranked sixth, and joint runners-up Palmer and Schauffele ranked first and second.
Scrambling
- Jon Rahm
- Matt Kuchar
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Sungjae Im
- Jordan Spieth
Being a Strutter with the Putter – This is without a doubt the key stat for this tournament. Reed ranked first last year, and five of the previous six winners ranked fourth or better.
Putting Average
- Justin Thomas
- Thomas Detry
- Cameron Smith
- Harry Hall
- Collin Morikawa
Draft Picks
After looking at the above data and running the field through our Beerlife profile builder, we have selected the following picks.
Must-Have Players – These are the players you need to have in your lineup regardless of the price.
| Jon Rahm |
| Odds To Win +650 |
| DraftKings $11,200 |
| FanDuel $12,200 |
| I have to stick with the king of Torrey Pines this week. Yes, I was disappointed with his final round last week. However, he probably wasn’t over-exerting himself in hindsight as he knew he probably wouldn’t be able to win the tournament. Therefore, he benefits from playing last week and hopefully having plenty left in the tank this week. His record in this tournament is superb. He placed seventh last year, second the year before that, fifth before that, and two years before that, he won. The world number one has the seventh-highest GIR percentage this season, resulting in the fifth-best birdie average on Tour. |
Longshots – These guys should give a good account of themselves and are of great value.
| Rory Sabbatini |
| Odds To Win +25000 |
| DraftKings $6,700 |
| FanDuel $8,000 |
| Although Sabbatini hasn’t been at his best recently, he does have a third-place finish at the Shriners Children’s Open to his name this season. He also placed tenth here last year, so he knows his way around these golf courses. He’s a player that takes his chances which is backed up by the fact that he ranks second on Tour for strokes gained around the green this season. If he can get himself in contention over the first couple of days, his experience could see him go close. |
| Cameron Young |
| Odds To Win +30000 |
| DraftKings $6,600 |
| FanDuel $8,000 |
| Cameron Young is a big hitter with a big future in the sport. He needs to become more consistent, but that will come with age. He has shown what he can do this season when he placed second at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Although he missed the cut here last year, it does mean he has some experience on the golf course. He has the 13th highest birdie average on Tour this season, so he certainly has the ability. If he can cut the errors out this week, he could be in with an outside chance |
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
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