As we enter week four of the 2021 college football season, there is now plenty of data and film to have a gauge on where teams stand. The recent trend of powerhouse teams taking on quality opponents as opposed to tune-up games is not only entertaining but helps from a handicapping standpoint.
The challenge in becoming a profitable CFB bettor is the vast amount of games makes it hard to evaluate a team from an eye-test perspective. Using metrics and advanced statistics also presents challenges as the quality of opponents can make previous game data misleading. Teams may start the year holding opponents to low scores only to give up more points as competition improves.
Where I have found success is CFB betting is following a simple process of 1. Compare lines 2. Find value 3. Let the odds work in our favor. For this reason, it is essential to have access to multiple sportsbooks. My books of choice are FanDuel and DraftKings. In these cheat sheets, Pinnacle SportsBook is used as a barometer for what the sharps are thinking. In many cases, Pinnacle’s odds lead the market as they cater to professional bettors.
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame
The Badgers opened this game as just -1.5 point favorites but have steadily climbed to their current line of -6.5. When removing the juice from Pinnacle, it appears this is a true 50/50 bet.
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No V_ig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Notre Dame +6.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | Pinnacle | -111.0 | 0.50668 |
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Wisconsin -6.5 | -105 | 51.219512 | Pinnacle | -105.0 | 0.49332 |
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Spread | Notre Dame +6.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | Pinnacle | -111.0 | 0.50668 |
| FanDuel | Spread | Wisconsin -6.5 | -106 | 51.456311 | Pinnacle | -105.0 | 0.49332 |
Recommendation: Right now I have a small lean towards Notre Dame +6.5. If the line moves to +7, I’m going all in. The implied probability of Wisconsin winning outright is 68%. With that being too expensive, I am not taking Wisconsin unless it drops to -5.5.
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | Over 46 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -108.0 | 0.5 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | Under 46 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -108.0 | 0.5 |
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | Over 46.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | Pinnacle | -101.0 | 0.483382 |
| FanDuel | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | Under 46.5 | -106 | 51.456311 | Pinnacle | -116.0 | 0.516618 |
The Wisconsin defense continues to be one the best in college football, while their offense has question marks across the board. Notre Dame was only able to score 27 against Purdue, they should come in well under that mark on Saturday.
Recommendation: I am locking in the under 46.5 on FanDuel. This is a no-brainer as they are giving an extra half-point compared to DraftKings (46, -110) at a better price.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas
In a battle of two ranked and undefeated teams, Texas A&M opened as the -6 point road favorites but the lines have moved towards Arkansas. The implied chance of an Aggies victory is 62%.
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Texas A&M -4.5 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -101.0 | 0.483382 |
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Arkansas +4.5 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -116.0 | 0.516618 |
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Spread | Texas A&M -3.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | Pinnacle | -118.0 | 0.518585 |
| FanDuel | Spread | Arkansas +3.5 | -106 | 51.456311 | Pinnacle | -101.0 | 0.481415 |
Recommendation: Compared to DraftKings, FanDuel is taking a full point off this spread for only a slightly higher cost on Texas A&M. The implied probability of an Aggies cover, is nearly 52%. I am taking Texas A&M -3.5 on FanDuel.
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Over 47 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -101.0 | 0.484385 |
| DraftKings | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Under 47 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -115.0 | 0.515615 |
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Over 46.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | Pinnacle | -109.0 | 0.502226 |
| FanDuel | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Under 46.5 | -106 | 51.456311 | Pinnacle | -107.0 | 0.497774 |
Recommendation: Texas A&M and Arkansas are ranked 3rd and 17th, respectively in yards allowed. I’m heading to Fanduel to pay a little extra for the total 46.5 and taking the over.
Tennessee vs Florida
Both Tennessee and Florida enter this SEC matchup with 2-1 records. Florida is coming off a close loss to Alabama and must get back on track to keep their CFB playoff hopes alive. This line opened at -16.5 and continues to move in the Gator’s direction.
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Tennessee +18.5 | -105 | 51.219512 | Pinnacle | -109.0 | 0.502226 |
| DraftKings | Point Spread | Florida -18.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | Pinnacle | -107.0 | 0.497774 |
| Book_x | Type_x | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds_y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Spread | Tennessee +18.5 | -108 | 51.923077 | Pinnacle | -109.0 | 0.502226 |
| FanDuel | Spread | Florida -18.5 | -112 | 52.830189 | Pinnacle | -107.0 | 0.497774 |
Recommendation: I see Tennesee succumbing to a higher level of competition and losing big. The points spread play is at FanDuel (-112 -18.5)
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Tennessee vs Florida | Over 63 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -112.0 | 0.508909 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee vs Florida | Under 63 | -110 | 52.380952 | Pinnacle | -104.0 | 0.491091 |
| Book_x | Game | Name | Price_x | Odds_x | Book_y | Price_y | No Vig Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Tennessee vs Florida | Over 63.5 | -112 | 52.830189 | Pinnacle | -106.0 | 0.495548 |
| FanDuel | Tennessee vs Florida | Under 63.5 | -108 | 51.923077 | Pinnacle | -110.0 | 0.504452 |
This total opened at 60.5 points and has risen throughout the week. Tennesee has been a scoring machine thus far but has yet to face a defense like the Gators.
Recommendation: I am waiting until Friday in hopes that this line continues to 64-64.5 and taking the under. If it remains the same I’ll still head to Fanduel and take the under (-108,63.5).
Week 4 Picks Summary
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame – Under 46.5 FanDuel
Texas A&M vs Arkansas – A&M -3.5 FanDuel
Texas A&M vs Arkansas – Over 46.5 FanDuel
Tennessee vs Florida – Florida -18.5 FanDuel
Tennessee vs Florida – Under 63.5, FanDuel
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