Setting the scene
The PGA Tour travels from one ocean to the other for the Bermuda Championship, just one week after the Zozo Championship in Japan. The field is one of the weakest on the PGA Tour’s schedule, as is typical for this event, but it usually means there are a few fascinating long-shot bets that have value.
The Bermuda Championship is in its third year at Port Royal Golf Course, so we have two years of results to look at. However, unlike other international events, we don’t have ShotLink data to go on, making it difficult to determine which aspect of the game is most important. We know that fairways at Port Royal are marginally more difficult to hit than on the average PGA Tour course. We’ll favor accuracy and ball striking abilities over distance and power, just like we did in the Zozo Championship last week.
If you’re a shorter hitter on the PGA Tour, October and November, the second and third months, may make or break your season. From here until the rare gift of a Christmas break, there are some fantastic and long-overdue opportunities to use accuracy, as the nature of the courses and the geometry of the fields finally assist in leveling the playing field. Brendon Todd restarted his career in less than a fortnight two years ago. Brian Gay won for the first time in nearly seven years in 2020, just weeks before his 49th birthday.
Betting Angles
Ability
Missing fairways isn’t the end of the world here; Wyndham Clark came close to overcoming her handicap only to lose in a play-off to Gay — but disaster awaits those who don’t miss in the correct spots. Todd may have sped away on 24-under, but if the breeze is as predicted, we’re in for another challenging week.
Todd, Gay, Clark, and others in the pack are undoubtedly good putters, and these Bermuda grass greens might produce another leaderboard full of them. But precision looks to matter more this week than it does other weeks, as evidenced by both champs and a slew of others close behind, and that could be the spot to seek value.
Course
The windswept beach course at Corales Puntacana Resort for the Corales Puntacana Championship is a comparable course to help navigate the 2021 Bermuda Championship winner this year. Graeme McDowell and Michael Gligic tied for fourth place in the March event. Russell Knox, Matthew NeSmith, and Brian Stuard are among the top-20 finishers from the oceanside 2021 Pebble Beach event competing in the Bermuda Championship.
Experience
Todd was 34 when he won here two years ago, and Gay won last year at the age of 48, a year after finishing third behind Todd. The older players benefit from, the shorter course, but the conditions are the fundamental reason for their success. When the wind starts howling, nothing beats experience, and according to early forecasts, the field will face stormy conditions again this year. They did the same thing a year ago.
The Draw
Windy conditions frequently cause leaderboards to shift, and both winners started slowly. Todd was in a tie for 25th place after round one, but a 63 in round two tied him for the lead at the halfway point, and Gay came from even further behind. This week, keep a close eye on the weather forecast. It’s been shifting over the previous several days, and there doesn’t appear to be much of a draw bias at the moment, but that might change dramatically by Thursday, and one side of the draw could be significantly favored.
Last year, the PM-AM starters scored 0.66 strokes better than the AM-PM starters, but the disparity was more pronounced in 2019 when the AM-PM side of the draw averaged 2.76 strokes better than those who started on Thursday afternoon.
Horses for courses
In 1965, the Port Royal Golf Course was established. The course was not completed until 1969 because of a conflict between existing property owners and developers. Famous golf course architect Robert Trent Jones created a beautiful 18-hole layout along the western coasts of Bermuda after modifying the property’s plan to satisfy an obstinate farmer.
The individual holes aren’t impressive. The layout of the golf course is relatively straightforward. The original Robert Trent Jones design hasn’t been updated significantly. This week, everything is right in front of the player. The greens have some wavy characteristics but nothing too challenging. Overall, the PGA Tour pros will not be confused or bewildered by this golf course.
The Port Royal Golf Course is a par 71 course that measures 6,850 yards. By PGA Tour standards, that’s a pretty short course. The golf course, however, is vulnerable to strong storm gusts from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, by design, it’s a short golf course. When the winds pick up, this may be a real challenge. On numerous holes, players will have to cope with strong crosswinds. If the wind isn’t blowing, however, the PGA Tour pros will devour the course.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Matthew Fitzpatrick 14-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16-1
Patrick Reed 22-1
Mito Pereira 25-1
Hayden Buckley 28-1
Matthias Schwab 35-1
Takumi Kanaya 35-1
Seamus Power 35-1
Sahith Theegala 35-1
Adam Hadwin 35-1
Patrick Rodgers 40-1
Taylor Pendrith 40-1
Danny Willett 40-1
Chad Ramey 40-1
Guido Migliozzi 40-1
Denny McCarthy 40-1
Scott Stallings 45-1
Thomas Detry 45-1
Russell Knox 45-1
Garrick Higgo 45-1
David Lipsky 45-1
Ryan Armour 45-1
Stephan Jaeger 45-1
Joseph Bramlett 50-1
Peter Uihlein 50-1
Alex Smalley 60-1
Dylan Frittelli 60-1
Nick Watney 60-1
Mark Hubbard 60-1
Nick Hardy 60-1
Hank Lebioda 60-1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66-1
Nick Taylor 66-1
Lucas Herbert 66-1
Matthew NeSmith 66-1
Harry Hall 66-1
Aaron Rai 66-1
Austin Eckroar 70-1
Jason Dufner 70-1
Brian Gay 70-1
Kramer Hickok 70-1
Peter Malnati 70-1
Bo Hoag 80-1
Anirban Lahiri 80-1
Graeme McDowell 80-1
Sepp Straka 80-1
Ludvig Aberg 80-1
Brian Stuard 80-1
Beau Hossler 80-1
Greyson Sigg 80-1
Lee Hodges 80-1
Brandon Hagy 80-1
Davis Riley 90-1
Dawie Van Der Walt 90-1
David Hearn 90-1
Camilo Villegas 90-1
Kurt Kitayama 100-1
Seth Reeves 100-1
Cameron Percy 100-1
Adam Svensson 100-1
Vincent Whaley 100-1
Brandon Wu 125-1
Michael Gligic 125-1
Dylan Wu 125-1
Paul Barjon 125-1
Austin Cook 125-1
Luke Donald 125-1
Sean O’Hair 150-1
Max McGreevy 150-1
Jim Knous 150-1
Andrew Novak 150-1
David Skinns 150-1
Patrick Flavin 150-1
Danny Lee 150-1
Austin Smotherman 150-1
Vaughn Taylor 150-1
Justin Lower 150-1
Chase Seiffert 150-1
Erik Barnes 200-1
Scott Gutschewski 200-1
Ben Kohles 200-1
Fabian Gomez 200-1
Ben Martin 200-1
Sangmoon Bae 200-1
J.J. Spaun 200-1
Kyle Wilshire 250-1
Callum Tarren 250-1
John Pak 250-1
Bo Van Pelt 250-1
Ben Crane 250-1
Johnson Wagner 250-1
Scott Brown 250-1
David Lingmerth 250-1
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
You must log in to post a comment.