Setting the scene
The FedEx Cup Play-Offs have arrived in Maryland, where Caves Valley Golf Club is making its PGA Tour debut. The BMW Championship, the penultimate event on the PGA Tour schedule this season, will feature 69 of the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. Because the Northern Trust was delayed for 24 hours, golfers who completed all 72 holes at Liberty National had less time between events than usual. Thankfully, the 200-mile travel south is shorter than the majority of the PGA Tour’s routes.
Patrick Reed, who was forced to withdraw from the last two events in North Carolina and New Jersey, is the only one missing this week. Reed has been diagnosed with bilateral interstitial pneumonia, which he has been suffering from in addition to exhaustion and an ankle ailment.
Those who were not in contention on Monday at Liberty National should be cognitively sharp and less weary than those who were. Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, and Patrick Cantlay are among those who are in good shape and ready to play again less than three days after laying low in New Jersey. Likewise, Louis Oosthuizen should be refreshed entirely, having sat out the last two events. At the same time, Dustin Johnson and Collin Morikawa went home last Friday after missing the cut at the Northern Trust.
Betting Angles
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green is the go-to statistic for all new courses added to the PGA Tour schedule. When unknown greens are used as targets, their usefulness is amplified. On the surface, the course design appears to reward well-executed shots and sound strategy. Many of the fairways are bordered by trees, and there is a decent mix of long and short holes. Distance control will be crucial, with a focus on striking the correct portion of the green complexes. There’s also a lot of danger lurking in the form of strategic bunkering and rugged terrain with trees. Nevertheless, the golfer who navigates his way around the course with solid course management and a focus on striking greens in regulation could do well this week.
There’s a chance you’ll be tempted to look for golfers that specialize in Tom Fazio courses. For example, many people confuse the WGC-Bridgestone at Firestone Country Club with a Tom Fazio design. Fazio designed the West Course at Firestone. Robert Trent Jones designed the South Course, which hosted the competition. In addition, while Tom Fazio (and his brother) designed the original PGA National, Jack Nicklaus completely redesigned the course. It now resembles the original Fazio design nearly entirely. As a result, don’t utilize the Honda Classic.
Please keep it simple by focusing on essential ball-striking numbers and sticking to the results at golf courses like Congaree Golf Club, Conway Farms Golf Club, and Quail Hollow Club. A bettor should be OK if they stick to that easy game plan.
Horses for courses
For many years, the BMW Championship, like The Northern Trust, has moved around the country. The Northern Trust focuses on New York City and Boston, whereas the BMW Championship has a considerably broader reach. The BMW Championship spans the United States, from Maryland to Illinois to Colorado, and is far more geographically diversified than the first round of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
This year, the BMW Championship will be held at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Tom Fazio designed the golf course, which debuted in 1991. The Corales Punta Cana Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship were the only Tom Fazio golf courses on the PGA Tour. This year alone, this will be the sixth time players will take on a Fazio design. Shadow Creek, Congaree, and Kasumigaseki were the other three Fazio’s who competed this year.
When the PGA Tour visits a new location, bettors may be best off keeping things simple. Pay extra attention to players who are highly efficient from tee to green, especially recently. According to all accounts, this week is shaping up to be a challenging one from tee to green. It will be difficult to hit out of the rough since it will be thick. For intermediate to shorter hitters, there are multiple fairway bunkers in the landing zone. In addition, there are a couple of water hazards close to the fairways that players must be aware of. On the stimpmeter, the bentgrass greens will roll rather quickly this week. Bettors who keep these factors in mind and perhaps lean a little more towards players who putt well on bentgrass should be fine.
On the other hand, the golf course appears to suit a longer hitter who can carry the majority of the fairway bunkers. Unless the rough lines are changed this year, several holes will provide a broader fairway to a longer hitter than a shorter hitter. Many golf courses have also attempted to grow out the rough to make precision more critical but to little result. It hasn’t enticed bombers to club down or penalized them harshly for hitting the rough more frequently than others.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
+650 JON RAHM
+1600 XANDER SCHAUFFELE
+1600 JUSTIN THOMAS
+2000 JORDAN SPIETH
+2000 COLLIN MORIKAWA
+2000 DUSTIN JOHNSON
+2000 CAMERON SMITH
+2200 BROOKS KOEPKA
+2500 PATRICK CANTLAY
+2500 RORY MCILROY
+2800 LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN
+2800 TONY FINAU
+2800 BRYSON DECHAMBEAU
+2800 SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER
+3300 VIKTOR HOVLAND
+3500 WEBB SIMPSON
+3500 ABRAHAM ANCER
+4000 DANIEL BERGER
+4000 PAUL CASEY
+4000 HARRIS ENGLISH
+4000 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
+4000 COREY CONNERS
+4000 SHANE LOWRY
+4500 JOAQUIN NIEMANN
+5000 SAM BURNS
+5000 SUNGJAE IM
+5500 KEVIN NA
+6600 RUSSELL HENLEY
+7500 JASON KOKRAK
+7500 ALEX NOREN
+8000 CAMERON TRINGALE
+8000 KEEGAN BRADLEY
+9000 SERGIO GARCIA
+9000 KEVIN KISNER
+9000 CAMERON CHAMP
+10000 CHARLEY HOFFMAN
+10000 BILLY HORSCHEL
+10000 HAROLD VARNER III
+10000 BRIAN HARMAN
+10000 ERIK VAN ROOYEN
+10000 KEVIN STREELMAN
+10000 BRANDEN GRACE
+10000 SI WOO KIM
+10000 MAVERICK MCNEALY
+11000 JHONATTAN VEGAS
+12500 SEBASTIAN MUNOZ
+12500 STEWART CINK
+12500 CAMERON DAVIS
+12500 MACKENZIE HUGHES
+12500 EMILIANO GRILLO
+12500 LEE WESTWOOD
+12500 MARC LEISHMAN
+14000 RYAN PALMER
+14000 TALOR GOOCH
+15000 MAX HOMA
+16000 PHIL MICKELSON
+16000 KEITH MITCHELL
+16000 CARLOS ORTIZ
+17500 AARON WISE
+20000 CHRIS KIRK
+20000 CHARL SCHWARTZEL
+20000 HARRY HIGGS
+20000 TOM HOGE
+20000 PATTON KIZZIRE
+25000 LUCAS GLOVER
+25000 K.H. LEE
+25000 MATT JONES
+25000 HUDSON SWAFFORD
+30000 ROBERT STREB
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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