This article is the third installment of our examination of the NFL post-season awards through the prism of an algorithmic model that simulates the NFL season tens of thousands of times. You can also read the model projections for the offensive and defensive rookie of the year awards.
When considering any wager on a hybrid futures/player prop bet, such as MVP, remember to adjust your unit size accordingly. Unit size should fluctuate relative to your perceived odds of success on a particular wager. The Kelly Criterion addresses this exact issue. Typical NFL spread or total bets list at -110 and have an implied probability of 52.38%. This season, the highest MVP odds are for Mahomes and sit at +600, an implied probability of 14.29%. You should adjust your unit size downward accordingly.
As with the previous two articles, the model is using readily available lines. When it comes time for you to place your side, make sure you take the time to shop for the best number. It is the easiest thing one can do to increase their return on investment.
Who Wins the MVP Award
