Famine Almost Cut Short at Farmers
While looking back at last week on reflection, it was a wonderful week; I can’t help think we could have done better and found the winner. There is no doubt Jon Rahm’s third-place finish is an excellent result. However, when the world number one leads after the third round, you expect him to win. Instead, he puts in a poor (by his lofty standards) final round to finish tamely for the second week in a row. Cameron Young finished a very respectable 20th, but he had a disappointing last round and was positioned to place higher. Sabbatini did make the cut, but he had an abysmal weekend and finished well down the field.
Our attention turns to Pebble Beach for the AT&T this week. After getting so close last week, surely a win is around the corner. We will begin, as always, by taking a look at the history of the tournament as we start to build this week’s BeerLife profile.
Since its inception in 1937 as the National Pro-Amateur Golf Championship, the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am has been a staple on the circuit. Bing Crosby, the crooner, founded and hosted the Pro-Am. Bing provided $3,000 to the first tournament’s prize pool, with Sam Snead taking home $700 as the winner. However, Bing’s widow pulled his name from the event once AT&T became the main sponsor in 1986.
The format consists of two-man teams—one professional and one amateur. The teams compete on a different course each of the first three days. The professionals and pro-am teams making the 54-hole cut play at Pebble Beach on the final day. Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Payne Stewart, Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Billy Casper, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, and others are among the winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
Let’s turn our attention to the form of the previous five winners, analyze their rounds and see if we can find some crucial links to begin our BeerLife profile.
2021 Daniel Berger – 270 – Form CUT/7/10/9
2020 Nick Taylor – 268 – Form 49/CUT/32/CUT
2019 Phil Mickelson – 268 – Form CUT/2/17/30
2018 Ted Potter Jr. – 270 – Form 73/CUT/CUT/13
2017 Jordan Spieth – 268 – Form 9/3/3/6
This week, the field will play one round at each of the three host venues before teeing it up at Pebble Beach for the final round on Sunday. The easiest of the three courses is Monterey Peninsula, while Spyglass Hill provides some wind shelter and slightly larger greens for players to attack.
Pebble Beach is a well-known golf course that has hosted numerous major championships over the years. The seaside links are one of the Tour’s shortest courses, and it’s one of the most authentic tests of golf management in windy conditions. The distinctive, tiny Poa Annua greens demand precision on approach, with GIR becoming a critical metric for success in recent years.
Despite the location of this event, it has notoriously been associated with poor or adverse weather conditions. However, there should be none of that this week and the playing conditions look perfect.
The tournament’s opening round begins on Thursday, February 3rd. A slew of celebrities on hand, including NFL players like QB Josh Allen and WR Larry Fitzgerald, MLB pro Mookie Bets, and more. Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Seamus Power, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, and the reinvigorated Jason Day headline the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
We run each player in the field through our BeerLife profile analysis to develop our selections. This is what we are looking for this week:
Quick Out the Blocks – After analyzing the past five winners rounds, it’s clear to see that a fast start is paramount this week.
Round 1 Scoring Average
- Patrick Cantlay
- Russell Henley
- Billy Horschel
- Kevin Na
- Sergio Garcia
Ironing out these Courses – It’s hard to handicap a tournament where the field plays different courses, and therefore, we have to look at more general stats than specifics. Therefore, this is an excellent place to start.
SG: Approach The Green
- Will Zalatoris
- Russell Henley
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
Hazard Play the Way – With many hazardous holes to face this week, it’s better to look at players that handle adversity.
- Daniel Berger
- Matt Kuchar
- Sungjae Im
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Troy Merritt
Putt Your First Foot Forward – While this tournament is not known as a putting contest, it can’t hurt to look at those who have excelled with the putter this season, given they will be facing different putting conditions.
- Wesley Bryan
- Adam Long
- Kelly Kraft
- Cameron Smith
- Brendon Todd
After looking at the above data and running the field through our Beerlife profile builder, we have selected the following picks.
Must-Have Players – These are the players you need to have in your lineup regardless of the price.
|Odds To Win +1000|
|It’s no surprise that Berger won here last year as he is the epitome of a well-rounded golfer. Given his form figures of 7/5/20 this season, it’s hard to ignore the reigning champion. Primarily seen as he loves it here! The year before lifting the title, he placed fifth and his only other visit here some years before finishing tenth. He is very straight tee to green which is backed up by the fact that he ranks first on Tour for driving accuracy this season. If he does have any errant shots, he has the insurance of being a superb wedge player, and he also ranks first for sand saves this season. |
Daniel ranks seventh on Tour for birdie average and is known to make a fast start. Given his straight game and superb scrambling, he doesn’t often make bogeys; however, what I like is that he can quickly put that behind him should it happen as he ranks second on Tour for bouncing back. Finally, he has made the cut in his previous 13 events, the longest streak on Tour.
Steady Eddies – These guys should give a good account of themselves and are good additions to your lineup.
|Odds To Win +1800|
|Anyone who knows me knows I’m a massive fan of this young man. The thing I like most is that he shows maturity way beyond his years. That maturity will be put to the test here as he narrowly missed out on his first Tour win last week at the Farmers when he lost out in a playoff. He had previously finished sixth at the American Express and seventh at the QBE shootout, so he is in good touch. |
Like Daniel Berger, Zalatoris is a very straight shooter from tee to green. He should do okay here if he can put last week’s disappointments behind him.
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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As always, believe in the power of statistics!
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