Recap of Last Weeks Bets
| Market | Selection | Result |
| To Win | Justin Thomas | Lost |
| Top 10 Finish | Matthew Wolff | Lost |
| Top 20 Finish | Joseph Bramlett | Lost |
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $30 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $409.30 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place this week, with the tournament returning to its regular format of three courses and a pro-am component. Remember that the top 60 players are eliminated after three rounds, with ties advancing to the final round. In the meantime, expect six-hour rounds and some variance according to the luck of the draw.
As we saw at the 2020 U.S. Open, the host course is undoubtedly the star. Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, and Brandt Snedeker are among the tournament’s regulars, as are Matt Fitzpatrick and Mackenzie Hughes. In addition, Kevin Kisner, Min Woo Lee, Seamus Power, Justin Rose, and Will Zalatoris comprise a reasonable AT&T renewal, especially on a week when the Saudi International on the Asian Tour features such a strong field.
The remaining two rounds of play are held at Spyglass Hill Golf Club and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The courses are around 7,000 yards long, with the Shore Course being a unique Par 71 with three par-5s on the inward half, resulting in a lopsided 34-37 course split. The courses are undeniably tricky, with Pebble Beach consistently being the most difficult of the three. Still, they only play as tough as the weather permits, with in-form players always shooting low scores on the Poa Annua greens.
Conditions for the AT&T Pebble Beach renewal in 2022 appear to be very northern European in origin. Temperatures will reach a maximum of 13-16 degrees Celsius across all four days, which will be pretty cold for those on the field. With barely 2mm of rain in January, the course will be firmer than a year ago. In 2018, we saw firmer conditions here when Ted Potter Jr. Thursday appears to be calm on the wind front, with no wind at all on Friday. As a result, expect high scores. Saturday seems to be a moving day with a bit of breeze, but Sunday might see northeasterly winds of 15-25 mph.
On to our picks for this year…
To Win
Patrick Cantlay +700
You’d be hard-pressed to find a better golfer over the last year than Patrick Cantlay, and this year appears to be heading the same way after two top-ten finishes from two tournaments played. Can play appears to like it around here, and he seems to be getting closer to lifting the title. In his previous four appearances, he has improved on each occasion (48/35/11/3), and if that continues here, he will surely have his hands on the trophy come Sunday. He is excellent off the tee, which has led him to have the highest GIR percentage on Tour this season. In addition, he has the best scoring average, which is aided by having the second-highest birdie average. Patrick also has the best first-round scoring average, which is usually useful here.
Top 10 Finish
Matt Kuchar +500
With three short courses in play this week, I feel more comfortable picking one of the older brigade as the emphasis won’t be on power. Although, to be fair, 43 is hardly old, it just seems that Kuch has been around forever! He has been ultra-consistent this season, and it appears he is on top of his game after placing third at the QBE Shootout and then seventh at the Sony Open last time out. He doesn’t have the most outstanding record here, with his best finish coming back in 2007 when he placed sixth. However, his experience more than overshadows that fact. He still has a great touch in and around the green and can hit the ground running most weeks.
Top Asian Player
Satoshi Kodaira +275
Satoshi Kodaira is a very steady golfer, and that should see him top the list of Asian players this week. In truth, he doesn’t have a great deal to beat. Regardless, this season he has placed 57th and then 12th last time out at the Sony Open, and anything near that should see him win this market. He has missed the cut here on his previous two visits, and while that would usually be a red flag, it is probably more experience than most of the other Asian players in this tournament. Kodaira has a very straight game, and if he can make a few more birdies than usual, he could do well this week.
Top 40 Finish
Kelly Kraft +400
Kelly Kraft is a name that many won’t have come across. His form this season is probably one of the reasons for that. However, he has struggled with injury, and if he’s fully fit, he could easily make an assault on the top 40. He showed glimpses at the Houston Open of what he could do when he placed 29th there. He missed the cut here the last three years, but in 2016-2017 he came runner up, proving that he can compete with the best. He’s not the best player tee to green; however, if he is given a chance on the putting green, he usually takes it.
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
You must log in to post a comment.