Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Preview

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Preview

Setting the scene

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and World No. 1 Jon Rahm are among the notable names in the field for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. However, recent PGA Tour results have demonstrated that well-known golfers with great resumes aren’t usually the ones who finish first. Four of the last five PGA Tour tournaments have been won by golfers who had never won on tour before. Scottie Scheffler, who won the W.M. Phoenix Open three weeks ago, is one of them. So what’s the story behind this sudden flurry of activity? It isn’t easy to attribute the parallels between the four winners to anything other than chance. It’s also possible that it won’t cease this week.

However, when the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this week appears more precarious for a dark horse triumph. While this reduces our chances of seeing an improbable winner, it does make the odds of some of the world’s best golfers more appealing for flyer bets.

Betting Angles

Power or Accuracy?

This is probably the biggest deliberation for most handicappers this week, as many will favor one over the other. Unsurprisingly, no one shot it farther off the tee than Bryson a year ago, and Rory McIlroy was also the best driver when he won here four years ago. But, on the other hand, although the course is long, the previous eight winners over the last 12 years have rated 45th, 36th, 11th, 49th, 48th, 34th, 26th, and 17th, even though the 2016 champion, Jason Day, placed sixth, and Martin Laird ranked fifth for D.D. in 2011.

Francesco Molinari, the 2019 winner, came in third for Driving Accuracy, the highest a victor has placed in that category in recent years. The past two winners for DA were ranked 25th and 33rd, respectively, and the six winners before Molinari were ranked 71st, 51st, 32nd, 44th, 17th, and 48th, respectively. But, of course, you also have to remember that the fairway rough is challenging at Bay Hill, so you could ask yourself what’s the point in hitting it far if you’re going to be in deep trouble taking on your second shot.

First-Time Winners Run To End?

DeChambeau had finished second and fourth in his previous four appearances to Bay Hill, and the four winners before Bryson had all finished in the top five. Tiger Woods has won the tournament eight times; thus, previous champions have an excellent track record. Given how crucial course form is, it’s understandable that first-timers don’t farewell.

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Bay Hill
Tuesday, 01 March
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A Link to Links

Tyrrell Hatton, the winner in 2020, has won two Alfred Dunhill Links Championships; the two winners before him, Molinari and McIlroy, have both won the Open Championship; and the two winners before that, Leishman and Day, came close to winning the Open Championship.

A Foreigner in Florida

Players from other countries have an excellent track record. Last year's second and third-place finishers and the first three home in 2020 were all from abroad. The five previous winners were all from outside the United States, and it was the first time since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans finished in the top five in a PGA Tour tournament.

In-Play

Being ahead of the pack is advantageous, but being in front hasn't been ideal recently - six of the last eight third-round leaders have failed to convert.

Horses for courses

The golf course has undergone a few restorations and adjustments throughout the years. Palmer wanted to improve the golf course's playability. His goal was to make it more approachable for amateurs while challenging the PGA Tour pros who come to the club every March.

Despite his best efforts, Bay Hill continues to play like a beast to amateur golfers. Unfortunately, there aren't many spots for novices to lay up off the tee and stay out of danger. The fairways at Bay Hill are somewhat tight and don't provide much room for maneuvering. In addition, there are numerous water hazards to suck up inaccurate drives, as there are on many Florida golf courses.

The only other line of defense for the golf course is the wind. This golf course can be challenging because of the strong north wind. When the weather is mild, and the winds are light, the winning score can be as low as -20. However, as the players discovered last year, a strong wind quickly dries Bay Hill. When there is a lot of wind, the golf course can play very firm and fast, and the greens become extra crispy.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm +850
Rory McIlroy +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Marc Leishman +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Adam Scott +3300
Paul Casey +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Max Homa +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Sergio Garcia +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Talor Gooch +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Jason Day +5500
Corey Conners +6000
Cameron Tringale +5500
Justin Rose +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Chris Kirk +6600
Luke List +6600
Cameron Young +6600
Seamus Power +6600
Erik Van Rooyen +7000
Lanto Griffin +7000
Tom Hoge +8000
Kevin Na +8000
Thomas Pieters +8000
Si-Woo Kim +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Carlos Ortiz +10000
Patrick Reed +10000
Matthew Wolff +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Lee Westwood +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Troy Merritt +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Garrick Higgo +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Aaron Wise +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Takumi Kanaya +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Cam Davis +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Charles Howell +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Danny Lee +20000
Brendan Steele +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Hudson Swafford +20000
Cameron Champ +20000
Sean O'Hair +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Min Woo Lee +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Henrik Stenson +20000
Rory Sabbatini +20000
Zach Johnson +20000
Matt Wallace +20000
Padraig Harrington +20000
Branden Grace +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Alex Smalley +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Brandt Snedeker +20000
Greyson Sigg +25000
Vincent Whaley +25000
Henrik Norlander +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Hayden Buckley +25000
Graeme McDowell +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Peter Malnati +30000
Adam Long +30000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Adam Schenk +30000

About the author:

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

Hey Guys

My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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