Recap of Last Weeks Bets
| Market | Selection | Result |
| To Win | Billy Horschel | Lost |
| Top 10 Finish | Cameron Young | Lost |
| Top South African | Louis Oosthuizen | Lost |
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $30 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $451.80 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event.
A weak Honda Classic is now followed by a solid Arnold Palmer Invitational, with an epic PLAYERS Championship to come. The Arnold Palmer hasn’t always been able to attract the finest players globally, but with the sport’s top-ranked player in attendance, we can’t complain.
We have a good field this week at Bay Hill; with no early-season World Golf Championship event in 2022, many players will use this as a warm-up for the Players Championship next week. This is, nevertheless, an Invitational-status tournament that elite players will want to add to their resumes, especially now that Arnold Palmer passed away in September 2016.
Arnie’s house is one of the longest courses on the tour, at nearly 7,500 yards. Bay Hill tends to play longer than the card indicates because the fairways are tiny, and the rough is a few inches deep. Last year, most of the approaches came from approximately 160 yards away, with slightly under half coming from more than 200 yards. As a result, this week, length is helpful. The wind has a significant role in how well you score on this course. Under challenging conditions, Tyrrell Hatton won this tournament at -4 in 2020, but Matt Every won at -19 in 2015.
At Bay Hill, players must be long or straight, preferably both, to win. Because of the course’s length, players can’t expect to win if they consistently hit their approach from 200 yards or more out of the rough.
On to our picks for this year…
Top Continental European
Jon Rahm +120
It’s surely only a matter of time before this sleeping giant awakens and picks up a victory on tour. But by anyone else standards, he is having an excellent season. Rahm still has a second, third and tenth place finish to his resume this year. I haven’t tipped Rahm to win this one outright because the stats are against him here. It’s been over thirty years since a debutant won around here. But, of course, if anyone is going to break that streak, it’s more than likely going to be the Spaniard.
To Win
Lucas Glover +15000
Lucas Glover is a consistent golf player who now and then throws in a superb round of golf. He has placed seventh and tenth here in the past, so he certainly knows his way around this course. He will also thrive in these playing conditions, which is a significant factor in selecting him this week. His driving accuracy is excellent, which leads to a high GIR percentage, which we require here. I certainly feel Glover is overpriced this week and gives us plenty of value.
Top 10 Finish
Corey Conners +550
Corey Conners always seems to float under the radar yet is always there or thereabouts come Sunday. He started the season off well but has come unstuck recently, missing three of the last four cuts in the events he has played. However, the fact that he placed third here last year means I can ignore that and focus on his game which I believe is suited to this course. He ranks ninth for strokes gained off the tee and sixth for his GIR percentage, which is two big pluses this week. Despite his poor form, he has made the green in regulation on his last 26 holes, the fifth-longest streak on tour.
Tournament Match Bet
Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Sungjae Im -130
The way Sungjae played last week, I think I would back myself to neat him here. However, the bookmakers have matched him against a links course specialist, which, as we know, tend to do well around here. Fitzpatrick has played some excellent golf throughout his last three tournaments on the PGA Tour, which has seen him place 12th, 6th, and 10th. In the previous three years, he has not been outside the top ten here, and therefore I see this being an opportunity to have a large wager on the Englishman.
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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