Recap of last weeks bets
| Market | Selection | Result |
| To Win | Beau Hossler | Lost |
| Top 10 Finish | Adam Long | Lost |
| Top 20 Finish | Joshua Creel | Lost |
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $20 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $339.30 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event.
We’re back on mainland American soil, and the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing begins with The American Express in La Quinta, California. This is the first of five events on the West Coast before the circuit moves east. The tournament has been a regular on Tour since 1960 under many names and has seen many alterations. It has rotated 13 different courses throughout its existence, and before 2012, it was a five-day event played over four distinct courses. Now it’s a four-day event across three courses, with La Quinta Country Club making a comeback after being dropped last year to keep covid protocols in place.
All competitors will alternate between the host location, PGA West’s Stadium Course, PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club for the first three days. Before a 54-hole cut, all players will return to the Stadium Course for the final round. The Nicklaus Tournament Course is the longest at 7204 yards, and all three courses are par 72 and short. Because this event has a pro-am component, the courses will never be set up to be excessively difficult. We’ve seen winning scores of -20 or lower every year since the event switched from a five-day to a four-day event.
The headline act is world number one Jon Rahm, who returns to the venue where he won in 2018. He’ll be joined by world #4 Patrick Cantlay, the runner-up from last year’s event. Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Abraham Ancer complete the group of five players from the world’s top 20 who will compete in La Quinta.
On to our picks for this year…
To Win
Corey Conners +2200
When I look up at the scoreboard these days, it appears that Conners always seem to be there or thereabouts. He placed 11th last week at the Sony Open and came fifth at the QBE Shootout the week before. As such, he will have an advantage over many of the field this week, as many of the top names will be playing for the first time this season.
He has played this event twice before, and while he has never troubled the leaders, having the experience of playing this unique tournament will see him in good stead. He hits a high green in regulation percentage and, as a result, has the fifth-best scoring average on Tour this season.
Top 5 Finish
Matthew Wolff +500
I can’t believe this guy is still only 22. He seems to have been around forever. He has arguably the best figures of any player this season, having placed 17th, 2nd, 5th, and 11th. This has meant he has the best scoring average on Tour this season.
This is his first event of the calendar year, which can sometimes be a concern. However, with so many famous faces around the course this week, the young Californian will be keen to leave a lasting impression. In and around the green, he has been superb this season, which in turn has helped his putting figures.
Tournament Match Bet
Talor Gooch to beat Tony Finau -110
For the third week in a row, I will stick with Talor Gooch. He wasn’t magnificent last week, but he wasn’t poor either. That is how Tony Finau’s season has started, so if Gooch can produce a decent performance as he has so far this season, he could eclipse his American counterpart.
Granted, Finau has a good record here, and while I don’t expect him to flop this week, Gooch could find himself above Finau in the standings come Sunday evening. This is primarily seen as Gooch has three top-five finishes to his name already this season.
Top 10 Finish
Seamus Power +275
Seamus Power is a player that seems to have some excellent figures over the last 12-18 months but yet still manages to fly under the radar most weeks. He finished third last week at the Sony Open and placed fourth at the RSM Classic a few weeks back. He also has another three top 15 finishes to his name this season. Seamus has probably played more golf this season than at least 75% of this week’s field, which could see him have an advantage. He has also placed 11th here previously.
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
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