A Fact Check on NFL “Sharp Reports” Through Six Weeks

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A Fact Check on NFL Sharp Reports Through Six Weeks

“Sharp” bettors are sports gamblers who bet and win at such a clip over a long period of time that it can be considered a profession. These gamblers can turn a profit to the extent it suffices as sustainable income, earning the name “sharp” or “pro.” Oh, what a wonderful world that would be if it was yours.

Luckily for the general population of bettors, the “squares” if you will, respected outlets such as VSiN, The Vegas Stats & Information Network, and The Action Network, are at the forefront of documenting and sharing what “sharps” bet.

BeerLife documented the bets and outcomes of college football “Sharp Reports” on Oct. 3 for VSiN and Oct. 8 for The Action Network, through five weeks of the student-athlete season.

Here is a fact-check on what “sharps” have bet, week by week, through six weeks of the NFL season. The following information is filtered to Sunday games, point-spread bets, and a lead writer who compiles the majority, if not all, of their outlet’s “sharp reports” that are posted for the public to view.

Important note: These fact checks are solely to highlight what sharps bet and the results, a progress report on their decisions, not a reckoning on the writer, in this case, Josh Appelbaum, pinpointed as the lead compiler of VSiN’s NFL “Sharp Reports.”

All quotes in the weekly breakdowns are credited directly to Appelbaum’s reporting. Click on the week to view the original article.

WEEK 1, SEPT. 12

Steelers at Bills

“Heavy public betting pushed Buffalo from -6 to -7. Once this line rose a full point, wiseguys pounced on Pittsburgh at the key number of 7, dropping the line back down to 6.5.”

Best sharp number: Steelers +7. Result: Steelers 23, Bills 16; WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 1-0 overall

Jets at Panthers

“This line opened with Carolina listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the Jets and is rushing to lay the short spread with Carolina at home. This lopsided betting pushed the line up to Carolina -5. Since that time, we’ve seen steady sharp action on the Jets plus the points, dropping the line down to 3.5.”

Best sharp number: Jets +5. Result: Panthers 19, Jets 14; PUSH. Sharps 1-0-1 overall

Browns at Chiefs

“This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public can’t quit the Chiefs, who are consistently the most popular team each week for recreational bettors. However, despite roughly two-thirds of bets laying the points, this line has fallen to 5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Cleveland, with pros grabbing the points and expecting a close game.”

Best sharp number: Browns +6. Result: Chiefs 33, Browns 29; COVERED. Sharps 2-0-1 overall

Broncos at Giants

“This non-conference showdown features the biggest line move of the Week 1 slate. … This line opened with Denver listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Wiseguys have hammered the Broncos, steaming Denver up from -1 to the key number of -3. Pros targeted Denver anything -2.5 or less.”

Best sharp number: Broncos -1. Result: Broncos 27, Giants 13; COVERED. Sharps 3-0-1 overall

Sharps didn’t take a loss in games detailed by the VSiN Week 1 “Sharp Report,” going 3-0-1.

WEEK 2, SEPT. 19

49ers at Eagles

“This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the high-flying 49ers. However, this line has actually fallen from 49ers -3.5 to -3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Eagles, with wiseguys pouncing on Philadelphia plus the hook (+3.5) at home.”

Best sharp number: Eagles +3.5. Result: 49ers 17, Eagles 11; LOST. Sharps 3-1-1 overall

Bills at Dolphins

“This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public says the Bills are a great team and have to bounce back and roll Miami. However, despite this lopsided betting, we’ve seen the line remain stagnant at 3.5. In fact, some shops look to be inching down to 3. This signals some sharp line freeze action and possible reverse line movement buying low on the Dolphins, particularly at 3.5 with the hook.”

Best sharp number: Dolphins +3.5. Result: Bills 35, Dolphins 0; LOST. Sharps 3-2-1 overall

Rams at Colts

“This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Rams, expecting an easy blowout win and cover. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Los Angeles, the line has remained at -4 or even dropped to -3.5. This signals some wiseguy liability on the Colts.”

Best sharp number: Colts +4. Result: Rams 27, Colts 24; COVERED. Sharps 4-2-1 overall

Vikings at Cardinals

“This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is pounding the Cardinals, who looked far better in Week 1 than the Vikings. However, this line has fallen from 4.5 to 3.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the road dog.”

Best sharp number: Vikings +4.5. Result: Cardinals 34, Vikings 33; COVERED. Sharps 5-2-1 overall

Sharps split their Week 2 plays, going 2-2 on the four games VSiN highlighted as receiving sharp action.

WEEK 3, SEPT. 26

Football Team at Bills

“This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Bills. However, despite this lopsided action we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -9.5 to -7. This signals some steady sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Football Team plus the points.”

Best sharp number: Football Team +9.5. Result: Bills 43, Football Team 21; LOST. Sharps 5-3-1 overall

Falcons at Giants

“This line opened with the Giants listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn’t know which bad team to back. However, we’ve seen the Falcons +3 get juiced up to -120 and some shops have even fallen to 2.5. This indicates respected money backing Atlanta.”

Best sharp number: Falcons +3. Result: Falcons 17, Giants 14; WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 6-3-1 overall.

Buccaneers at Rams

“This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs as a short dog, steaming Tampa Bay from +1.5 to -1.5.”

Best sharp number: Buccaneers +1.5. Result: Rams 34, Buccaneers 24; LOST. Sharps 6-4-1 overall

Sharps finished Week 2 with an outright win on the underdog Falcons and two losses.

WEEK 4, OCT. 3

Football Team at Falcons

“This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to back. But we’ve seen the Football Team flip from +1 to -1.5, signaling sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in their favor.”

Best sharp number: Football Team +1. Result: Football Team 34, Falcons 30; WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 7-4-1 overall

Cardinals at Rams

“This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride the high-flying Rams at home laying a short number, especially after their big win over the Bucs. However, we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -6 to -4. This signals notable wiseguy action buying low on the undefeated Cardinals plus the points.”

Best sharp number: Cardinals +6. Result: Cardinals 37, Rams 20; WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 8-4-1 overall

Steelers at Packers

“This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the red-hot Packers against the ice-cold Steelers. However, despite this lopsided betting, we’ve seen the Packers fall from -7 to -6. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Pittsburgh in the ultimate buy-low spot.”

Best sharp number: Steelers +7. Result: Packers 27, Steelers 17; LOST. Sharps 8-5-1 overall

Buccaneers at Patriots

“This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to lay the points with Tampa Bay, steaming the Bucs up from -5.5 to -7.”

Best sharp number: Buccaneers -5.5. Result: Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17; LOST. Sharps 8-6-1 overall

Sharps went 2-2 on their Week 4 bets profiled in VSiN’s “Sharp Report,” finishing at .500 for the second time in three weeks.

WEEK 5, OCT. 10

Jets at Falcons (Game played in London)

“This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite. Respected money has jumped on the Jets getting points, dropping this line down to 2.5.”

Best sharp number: Jets +3.5. Result: Falcons 27, Jets 20; LOST. Sharps 8-7-1 overall

Eagles at Panthers

“This line opened with Carolina listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the Eagles and is happy to lay the points with the Panthers, who are at home laying a short number and have a far better won-loss record. However, pro money appears to be buying low on Philadelphia as we’ve seen the Eagles move from +4 to +3 despite being the unpopular play.”

Best sharp number: Eagles +4. Result: Eagles 21, Panthers 18; WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 9-7-1 overall

Packers at Bengals

“This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Aaron Rodgers in company laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting, we’ve seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. Some books are even down to 2.5. This signals some wiseguy reverse line movement on the Bengals plus the points at home.”

Best sharp number: Bengals +3.5. Result: Packers 25, Bengals 22 (OT); COVERED. Sharps 10-7-1 overall

Giants at Cowboys

“This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Cowboys, who are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. However, this line hasn’t ticked up to Dallas. Instead, it’s fallen from 7.5 to 7. This indicates some respected money grabbing the Giants, ideally with the hook (7.5).”

Best sharp number: Giants +7.5. Result: Cowboys 44, Giants 20; LOST. Sharps 10-8-1 overall

Sharp bettors again went 2-2 on their plays, splitting their selections in back-to-back weeks and three over the past four.

WEEK 6, OCT. 17

Vikings at Panthers

“This line opened with Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. Typically teams are awarded roughly 3 points for home-field advantage. So this opener says the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. The public is all over Carolina, which has a better record and is laying a short number at home. However, pros have gotten down hard on Minnesota, flipping the Vikings from a +1 dog to a -2.5 favorite.”

Best sharp number: Vikings +1. Result: Vikings 34, Panthers 28 (OT); WON OUTRIGHT. Sharps 11-8-1 overall

Chargers at Ravens

“This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the red-hot Chargers getting points, dropping Los Angeles down from +3.5 to +2.5.”

Best sharp number: Chargers +3.5. Result: Ravens 34, Chargers 6; LOST. Sharps 11-9-1 overall

Cowboys at Patriots

“This line opened with Dallas listed as roughly a 2-point road favorite. The public is hammering Dallas, who is the only team to cover every number this season. This lopsided support pushed the Cowboys up to -4.5. That’s when a flood of sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping New England down to +3.5 or even +3 at some shops.”

Best sharp number: Patriots +4.5. Result: Cowboys 35, Patriots 29 (OT); LOST. Sharps 11-10-1 overall

Through six weeks of the 2021 NFL season, “sharp” picks detailed by VSiN have gone for 11 wins, 10 losses, and one push. With professional bettors playing the long game, more wins than losses (albeit slightly) is a decent start through the first third of the pro football schedule.

Week 1 was the pro’s best slate, finishing 3-0-1. Since then, they failed to register a winning week, splitting four-pick slates in Weeks 2, 4, and 5. Three-pick slates in Weeks 3 and 6 both finished 1-2.

Up next: The Action Network NFL “Sharp Reports.”

Follow the “BeerLife Sports NFL Analysts Picks” here for a weekly review of our site’s three most prolific NFL analysts and their game and prop predictions week by week, and for the season total.

About the author:

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Mario Sanelli writes about sports betting for BeerLife Sports. He previously was the editorial assistant and a general-assignment reporter at The Denver Post for five years after serving as chief editor of The Metropolitan at MSU Denver. Mario was a NFL and college football insider with Mile High Sports for six years.

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