Setting the scene
The PGA TOUR returns to TPC Twin Cities for the third year in a row to compete in the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities is a par-71, 7,431-yard Arnold Palmer design. The course is flat all the way around and has bentgrass greens. Although the fairways are more straightforward to hit than the TOUR average, water hazards are present on 13 of the 18 holes. This week, 156 golfers will compete in the 3M Open, with the top 65 players and ties qualifying for the weekend. Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, Sergio Garcia, and Keegan Bradley are among the noteworthy golfers in Minnesota.
Another shootout is predicted, and low scores will increase the number of players with lengthier golf betting odds who will compete for a high finish or win. The winning scores in the previous two years were -21 (263) and -19, respectively (265). In 2019, six of the top ten finishers had pre-tournament odds of +8000 or higher, including champion Matthew Wolff (+12500), who won by one stroke with an eagle on the last par 5. Michael Thompson won last year’s 2020 tournament with +10000 odds, and runner-up Adam Long (+15000) was an even bigger longshot. Eight players tied for third place, and a total of eight players in the top ten finished with odds of at least +8000 to win.
Betting Angles
It’s difficult to handicap weak fields on easy golf courses. This is the situation that bettors will face this week at the 3M Open. The field is quite top-heavy, and there is a sea of mediocrity outside of the big names. TPC Twin Cities has many water hazards and fairway bunkers, although the field hits the fairways at a good percentage. The 3M Open has a driving accuracy percentage of 63.5 percent after two events, which is somewhat higher than the PGA Tour average. Given the number of penalty areas, hitting a lot of fairways this week is a must. At TPC Twin Cities, splattering it all over the map isn’t going to cut it. This isn’t, however, a golf course where angles into the green are prized.
With short and mid irons, the field also blasts the greens at a fast pace. Through two tournaments, the green in regulation rate has risen to well over 70%. Furthermore, the Midwest has gotten an abundance of rain this summer. So this week at TPC Twin Cities, the greens will be pillow-soft. From the fairway, players will confidently go pin-hunting.
As a result, this competition will see who can keep the ball out of trouble off the tee the longest. It’s also a ball-strikers competition for individuals who want to fire at reachable pins. Then it’s a competition to see who can putt the best. Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson are the winners of each 3M Open. Both players are opposites. Michael Thompson’s wedges and putter are excellent, and Wolff is a bomber.
On the other hand, Wolff hit the ball well all week and had a lot of wedges into the green. He’s also a putter who can catch lightning in a bottle, which explains why he won in 2019. On the other hand, Thompson sank multiple nice looks while hitting fairways and greens in regulation at a high rate.
Competitions like this are likewise highly open. Easy golf courses with high hit rates on fairways and greens help close the gap between the best and worst players. When PGA Tour pros are gripping an iron onto a soft putting surface, they have the green light. Look for players that have a history of performing well in similar situations.
Horses for courses
Please make no mistake: this is a visually appealing layout, but its difficulty is not what you’d expect from a PGA TOUR venue. The average winning score from the two editions of the 3M Open thus far has been -20 – that gives the best guide on how this track can be defeated—masterminded by Arnold Palmer, who is one of the more forgiving architects around. This is a watery parklands track with 27 different lakes, ponds, and water features, although these are only in play for the most daring — its primary purpose is to provide aesthetic appeal.
There are 72 bunkers as well, but they’re easy to avoid and maneuver a way out of, so TPC Twin Cities’ primary defense is the wind, which will be benign according to early forecasts. The Par 71 course is 7,431 yards, with three Par 5s measuring over 600 yards — bringing eagle into play for the big hitters – and three Par 4s measuring less than 400 yards, leaving the big drivers with the shortest of wedges. The fairways are vast, and the Bentgrass greens are enormous, with a stimpmeter reading of 12 indicating a fast pace.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
• Dustin Johnson: +750
• Louis Oosthuizen: +1400
• Tony Finau: +1400
• Patrick Reed: +1800
• Cameron Tringale: +2800
• Robert MacIntyre: +2800
• Brian Harman: +3000
• Matthew Wolff: +3000
• Emiliano Grillo: +3300
• Lucas Herbert: +3300
• Seamus Power: +3300
• Sergio Garcia: +3300
• Bubba Watson: +3500
• Cameron Davis: +4000
• Hank Lebioda: +4000
• Jhonattan Vegas: +4000
• Maverick McNealy: +4000
• Rickie Fowler: +4000
• Doug Ghim: +4500
• Keegan Bradley: +4500
• Charl Schwartzel: +5000
• Dylan Frittelli: +5000
• Gary Woodland: +5000
• Luke List: +5000
• Patton Kizzire: +5000
• Ryan Moore: +5000
• Stewart Cink: +5000
• Lanto Griffin: +6000
• Brandt Snedeker: +6600
• Charles Howell III: +6600
• Chris Kirk: +6600
• J.T. Poston: +6600
• Patrick Rodgers: +6600
• Richy Werenski: +6600
• Mito Pereira: +7500
• Brendon Todd: +8000
• Joel Dahmen: +8000
• Kyle Stanley: +8000
• Matt Kuchar: +8000
• Michael Thompson: +8000
• Steve Stricker: +8000
• Troy Merritt: +8000
• Adam Hadwin: +10000
• Adam Schenk: +10000
• Beau Hossler: +10000
• Bo Hoag: +10000
• Brandon Hagy: +10000
• Brian Stuard: +10000
• Cameron Champ: +10000
• Chez Reavie: +10000
• Erik Van Rooyen: +10000
• Tom Lewis: +10000
• Adam Long: +12500
• Mark Hubbard: +12500
• Pat Perez: +12500
• Russell Knox: +12500
• Ryan Armour: +12500
• Sam Ryder: +12500
• Scott Stallings: +12500
• Sepp Straka: +12500
• James Hahn: +15000
• Keith Mitchell: +15000
• Rafa Cabrera Bello: +15000
• Tom Hoge: +15000
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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