What a Week!
Wow, what a week! If you follow our selections last week at The Open, then you were sure to be in the money. Four of our five choices finished inside the top 20, with two finishing inside the top three, and it all culminated with us picking the outright winner Collin Morikawa.
Morikawa went into the final round in second-placed behind long-time leader Louis Oosthuizen, and it appeared that it would be a straight shoot-out between the two. However, Oosthuizen ran out of steam, and it was Jordan Spieth who was Morikawa’s closest pursuer. But whenever Jordan got close, Collin pulled away and ran out a two-shot winner, picking up his second major of the season in the process.
Jon Rahm came in third place, as he had a fantastic tournament but never looked in contention to win. Grill had a solid competition and placed 12th, with Webb Simpson finishing two shots behind him in 19th. The only disappointment was Patrick Cantlay, who failed to make the cut, but given the performance of the other four players, this won’t have hurt too much.
This week we’re heading to the TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. Let’s keep this momentum going and begin, as always, by looking at the tournament’s history as we start to build this week’s Beerlife profile.
The History of the 3M Open
The PGA Tour returns to action with the third edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota, following The 149th Open, the season’s last major. There isn’t much history to report like there was with the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago. Despite only two editions, the 3M Open hasn’t been without its share of excitement.
The tournament, which debuted in 2019 with Minnesota-based 3M as the title sponsor, was previously known as the 3M Championship, a PGA Champions Tour event that ran from 1993 to 2018 and has been held at TPC Twin Cities since 2001. The popular Chi Chi Rodriguez took first place in that debut tournament. Hale Irwin and Kenny Perry shared the event victory record for the long-running stop, with the latter winning the final tournament a year ago. Bernhard Langer was the only other player to win the tournament twice, in 2009 and 2012.
Minnesota had not hosted a regular PGA Tour stop since 1969 before last year’s event. However, the state has hosted some major golf tournaments, including the 2002 and 2009 PGA Championships and the 2016 Ryder Cup, both of which were held at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska. The inaugural event was won by Matthew Wolff in one of the most exciting finishes of the 2019 season, while the 3M Open was won by Michael Thompson last season.
Let’s turn our attention to the form of the previous winners, analyze their rounds and see if we can find some crucial links to begin our BeerLife profile.
Past Results
2020 Winner Michael Thompson – 265 (-19) – Form CUT/64/46/8
2020 Runner Up Adam Long – 267 (-17) – Form CUT/52/24/CUT
2019 Winner Matthew Wolff – 263 (-21) – Form CUT/80/50/-
2019 Runner Up Bryson DeChambeau – 264 (-20) – Form 8/35/22/CUT
The Course at TPC Twin Cities
The Champions Tour event at TPC Twin Cities was known for its low scoring. The 3M Championship birdie-fest was aided by wide fairways, light rough, accessible pin placements, and manageable bunkers. Tom Lehman was hired to manage a course makeover for the 3M Open to challenge the world’s finest golfers.
For the 3M Open, the Twin Cities has been upgraded to a 7,431-yard Par 71 course. The course’s overall layout hasn’t changed, but hole #3, which is ordinarily a Par 5, is now a Par 4 for the tournament. In addition, several holes have gained length thanks to the addition of new tee boxes. The course was lengthened by over 500 yards in total.
Fairways were narrowed, and the rough was raised as part of the makeover, placing extra strain on the driver. In order to put the ball in the appropriate position to attack the pins, course management is crucial. Some of the bunkering was also enlarged.
Although there could be some cloud cover around, the weather looks hot this week, and therefore, the players can have no excuses for the playing conditions.
The 3M Open Field
Patrick Reed committed to competing in this week’s PGA Tour event shortly after missing the 36-hole cut at The Open Championship on Friday, giving the 3M Open a solid late addition to its field. Along with world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, the 2018 Masters champion began this week as the world’s No. 9 player, making him the second of two top 10 players in this week’s field, which was officially published Friday afternoon.
Also in the field is No. 13 Louis Oosthuizen, who did lead The Open by two strokes after finishing second in both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open earlier this season. Tony Finau, who tied for third last year in Blaine, is the other top-20 player in the field. When you combine those four top players with well-known names like Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, and Bubba Watson, the 3M Open has a pretty good field in a year with a challenging schedule.
| Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
| +85° | +94° | +100° | +101° | +97° | +96° |
| +64° | +72° | +74° | +75° | +73° | +71° |
Many of the world's top players (including Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau, who are expected to return to TPC Twin Cities in the future) were immediately ruled out of competing in Minnesota this summer due to the event's placement between The Open and the Olympics.
However, stars like Jason Kokrak and Stewart Cink, who have won twice on the PGA Tour this year, will be in attendance. Locals like Spring Lake Park High School alumni Troy Merritt and Gophers alum Erik van Rooyen will be there as well. In addition, Matthew Wolff, the inaugural 3M Open winner, is returning for the third year in a row. Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland, the 2019 U.S. Open champion, are among the other notable players in the field.
Key Stats
We run each player in the field through our Beerlife profile analysis to come up with our selections. This is what we are looking for this week:
Eight is Great – Two of the four winners/runners up finished 8th in the lead up to the 3M Open.
The Open – 8th Placed Finishers
• Dustin Johnson
• Robert MacIntyre
• Daniel Berger
• Scottie Scheffler
The Regulators – Both previous winners of this tournament finished with an 83% GIR percentage.
GIR Percentage
- Collin Morikawa
- Cameron Percy
- Matthew NeSmith
- Jon Rahm
- Emiliano Grillo
Approaching the right way – The winners of this tournament finished second and fourth for strokes gained on the approach.
Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Russell Henley
- Keegan Bradley
- Justin Thomas
Avoid those bogeys – While the course is known for players making many birdies, the difference could be those who avoid making bogeys, as Michael Thompson did last year.
Bogey Avoidance
- Webb Simpson
- Russell Henley
- Hank Lebioda
- Daniel Berger
- Cameron Tringale
Draft Picks
After looking at the above data and running the field through our Beerlife profile builder, we have selected the following picks.
Must-Have Players – These players may cost a bit more but are sure to be worth it.
| Dustin Johnson |
| Odds To Win +750 |
| Draft Kings $11,300 |
| FanDuel $12,200 |
| World number two is a worth favorite this week and hard to ignore in this field. He hasn't been outside the top 25 in his last four tournaments, including two top-ten finishes. He withdrew around here last year and will feel he needs to make amends this year. |
Steady Eddies – These guys should give a good account of themselves but won’t break the bank to add them to your lineup.
| Robert MacIntyre |
| Odds To Win +2800 |
| Draft Kings $9,000 |
| FanDuel $10,500 |
| The young Scotsman caught the eye last week at The Open, and he has shown no fear this season when it comes to the big occasion. This is highlighted in his 8th placed finish at The Open, his 9th placed finish at the World Match Play, and his 12th place finish at the Masters. He is a consistent type and could be worth following while he is on a hot streak. |
| Hank Lebioda |
| Odds To Win +4000 |
| Draft Kings $7,900 |
| FanDuel $9,700 |
| Hank has arguably the best form coming into this week after finishing inside the top ten in his last three competitions. He is one of the best bogey avoidance players on your, which is helped by being the third-highest ranked scrambler. He is one of the best final-round players this season, and having had two decent cracks at this in the past, if he is up the top come Saturday, you certainly wouldn't back against him. |
| Cameron Tringale |
| Odds To Win +2800 |
| Draft Kings $9,500 |
| FanDuel $10,900 |
| Tringale finished third here last year and, like Lebioda, is one of the best bogey avoidance players this season. This is due to him having one of the best three-putt avoidance records on tour. He ranks second for putting in the first round, so look for him to start fast. Cameron also has a 62 to his name this season, so he undoubtedly knows how to go low. |
Long Shots – These guys will cost a lot less but still have a decent chance and can undoubtedly make up a team if you're running low on funds.
| Cameron Percy |
| Odds To Win +12500 |
| Draft Kings $6,800 |
| FanDuel $7,000 |
| Cameron Percy has the best GIR percentage in the field and is worth picking for that stat alone, as we know how important that is here. He also ranks ninth for average proximity to the hole, so he not only gets it on the green regularly, he gets it close. He recently came 11th at the John Deere, so he has a bit of form coming into this one. |
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
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