Recap of last weeks bets
To Win – Webb Simpson – LOST
To Miss the Cut – Dustin Johnson – LOST
Top 20 Finish – Charley Hoffman – LOST
Top 10 First Round – Patrick Reed – LOST
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $40 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $162.50 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event.
We look forward to the 3M Open at the magnificent TPC Twin Cities as we journey back across the pond for our weekly taste of PGA Tour action. With many PGA Tour regulars taking a week off after the Open Championship, this appears to be an excellent chance for someone to grab a valuable tour victory.
While some of the world’s best players will be vying for Olympic gold in Tokyo next week, the PGA Tour will be focusing on FedEx Cup points following Collin Morikawa’s Open victory in the year’s final Major. Dustin Johnson, the world number two, leads the field at the 3M Open in Minnesota, while South African Louis Oosthuizen, who finished third at Royal St George’s last week, will be trying to win his first US championship. However, with only three weeks until the playoffs, anyone hoping to compete for the $15 million first prize or merely secure their touring rights for the following year must act quickly.
Matthew Wolff, 20, won the inaugural 3M Open in only his third appearance on the tour. He succeeded dramatically, edging out Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau by one stroke on the final hole with a long eagle putt from the fringe. Last year, Michael Thompson won by two shots over Adam Long after birdieing his final hole. In a tie for third place, nine players finished. It was the 35-year old’s second PGA Tour triumph, following his victory at the Honda Classic in 2013.
We only have data from two editions of this event, but the most consistent trend among the top finishers appears to be Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. SG Approach stats stand out within that metric, which also covers Off The Tee and Around The Green. When Matthew Wolff won in 2019, he was first from the tee to the green and second in approach. Collin Morikawa was second and first in those same two categories when he finished third.
Michael Thompson finished fourth in approach last year, but he also led the SG: Putting numbers. The ability to hole everything might always be the deciding element, but at TPC Twin Cities, putting hasn’t been everything.
On to our picks for this year…
Dustin Johnson +750
After playing links golf last week, DJ should find this course a walk in the park. He finished strong at The Open and therefore carries some momentum into this week. He’s short enough odds for a tournament where favorites haven’t faired too well, but after withdrawing in this petition last year, you feel Dustin wants to return to Minnesota with a bang.
Cameron Percy +750
The 3M Open is all about greens in regulation, and nobody has a higher GIR percentage than Cameron Percy. He has one of the best short games on tour, confirmed by him being the second-best player three-hole player this season. With the fairways being so wide, he should be able to get the ball close this week.
Robert MacIntyre +250
Robert MacIntyre reminds me of Rory McIlroy in his early days, and I believe the sky is the limit for the talented Scotsman. He comes into this one in great form after his eighth-placed finish at The Open, and like all young players, you have to ride them while they’re hot.
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
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