2021 NFL Week 5 Lines and Movement

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2021 NFL Week 5 Lines and Movement

NFL Week 4 featured a handful of big underdogs winning outright, most notably the Giants (+280 closing moneyline) in New Orleans and Jets (+225) vs. the Titans, both in overtime. The Cardinals stayed perfect, beating the Rams as a +175 underdog in Los Angeles. Way up the California road, another divisional rivalry saw the visiting Seahawks (+120) take down the 49ers.

The ripples of these notable upsets influenced the respective point spreads for NFL Week 5 from the opening numbers. There also was considerable early movement for this week’s Sunday night matchup when the Bills travel to Arrowhead.

The charts below show line movement for every NFL game from opening to current numbers and where money is influencing point spreads. These charts are updated daily throughout the week, so check back as we detail the fluctuation. 

Here’s a look at the top two tiers of sportsbooks and where the value lies within the current numbers as of Sunday morning:

TIER ONE

NFL WEEK 5 GAMESOPENING FAV. 10/4DRAFTKINGSFANDUELBETMGMCAESARS
TNF: Rams 26, Seahawks 17Rams -1Rams -2Rams -2.5Rams -2.5Rams -2.5
London: Jets at FalconsFalcons -4Falcons -2.5Falcons -3Falcons -3Falcons -2.5
Dolphins at BuccaneersBuccaneers -9.5Buccaneers -10Buccaneers -9.5Buccaneers -10Buccaneers -10
Eagles at PanthersPanthers -4Panthers -3Panthers -3Panthers -3Panthers -3
Saints at Football TeamPick ’emSaints -2.5Saints -2.5Saints -2.5Saints -2.5
Titans at JaguarsTitans -7.5Titans -4.5Titans -4.5Titans -4.5Titans -4.5
Lions at VikingsVikings -8Vikings -10Vikings -10Vikings -10Vikings -10
Broncos at SteelersBroncos -2Broncos -1.5Broncos -1.5Broncos -1.5Broncos -1
Packers at BengalsPackers -3Packers -2.5Packers -3Packers -3Packers -3
Patriots at TexansPatriots -7.5Patriots -7.5Patriots -7.5Patriots -8.5Patriots -8
Bears at RaidersRaiders -7Raiders -5Raiders -5.5Raiders -5.5Raiders -5.5
Browns at ChargersPick ’emChargers -2.5Chargers -2.5Chargers -2.5Chargers -2.5
Giants at CowboysCowboys -8.5Cowboys -7Cowboys -7Cowboys -7Cowboys -7
49ers at CardinalsCardinals -2.5Cardinals -5.5Cardinals -5.5Cardinals -5.5Cardinals -5.5
SNF: Bills at ChiefsChiefs -4Chiefs -2.5Chiefs -3Chiefs -2.5Chiefs -3
MNF: Colts at RavensRavens -6.5Ravens -6.5Ravens -7Ravens -6.5Ravens -7
Odds as of Sunday, Oct. 10. Updated once daily

TIER TWO

NFL WEEK 5 GAMESOPENING FAV. 10/4BETRIVERSBETFREDFOX BETPOINTSBET
TNF: Rams 26, Seahawks 17Rams -1Rams -2.5Rams -2.5Rams -2.5Rams -2.5
London: Jets at FalconsFalcons -4Falcons -3Falcons -3Falcons -2.5Falcons -2.5
Dolphins at BuccaneersBuccaneers -9.5Buccaneers -10Buccaneers -10Buccaneers -10Buccaneers -10
Eagles at PanthersPanthers -4Panthers -3Panthers -3Panthers -3Panthers -3
Saints at Football TeamPick ’emSaints -2.5Saints -1.5Saints -2.5Saints -2.5
Titans at JaguarsTitans -7.5Titans -5Titans -4.5Titans -5Titans -4.5
Lions at VikingsVikings -8Vikings -10Vikings -10Vikings -10Vikings -10
Broncos at SteelersBroncos -2Broncos -1.5Broncos -1.5Broncos -1.5Broncos -1
Packers at BengalsPackers -3Packers -3Packers -3Packers -2.5Packers -3
Patriots at TexansPatriots -7.5Patriots -8.5Patriots -7.5Patriots -8Patriots -8
Bears at RaidersRaiders -7Raiders -5.5Raiders -5.5Raiders -5.5Raiders -5.5
Browns at ChargersPick ’emChargers -2.5Chargers -2.5Chargers -2.5Chargers -2.5
Giants at CowboysCowboys -8.5Cowboys -7Cowboys -7Cowboys -7Cowboys -7
49ers at CardinalsCardinals -2.5Cardinals -5.5Cardinals -5.5Cardinals -5Cardinals -5.5
SNF: Bills at ChiefsChiefs -4Chiefs -3Chiefs -3Chiefs -2.5Chiefs -3
MNF: Colts at RavensRavens -6.5Ravens -7Ravens -7Ravens -7Ravens -7
Odds as of Sunday, Oct. 10. Updated once daily

As of Sunday morning:

  • The Falcons fell slightly from -4 to -3.5 “hosting” the Jets in London. The Jets notched their first victory of the season in NFL Week 4, and held value above a field goal on Monday. By Tuesday, the market solidified this spread at three points from Jets +3.5. On Wednesday, a couple books bumped up the Falcons to -3.5 favorites, offering value for Jets backers that didn’t get “the hook” (a half point) earlier in the week. By Thursday through Saturday night, the hook was gone over three points and more books moved the spread to 2.5, offering buyback value on the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers opened as the biggest favorite for NFL Week 5 at -9.5 hosting the Dolphins. That opener moved to and through a key number of 10 at some books but went back to -10 as of Wednesday and through Thursday. By Friday, Bucs -9.5 hit the board but Saturday brought buyback on the Bucs under a key number of 10 points, which erased -9.5 across the market except at FanDuel.
  • No significant action on Monday budged the EaglesPanthers opening number off four points. Most books moved to 3.5 as money hit the Eagles on Tuesday and only one book offered Eagles +4 by Wednesday with the rest listing the spread at 3.5. By Thursday, all books except BetRivers (-3.5) had this spread at three points and come Friday, BetRivers uniformly went to three points, where the spread stayed through Saturday.
  • Books put the SaintsFootball Team game at a pick ’em and early action backed the Saints, making them a short road favorite between -1 and -2.5. That range has held every day through Friday but by early Sunday morning every book except Betfred listed Saints -2.5.
  • Early bettors hammered the TitansJaguars spread since the Titans lost on the road to the Jets and the Jaguars put together their best performance of the season, ultimately losing 24-21 on Thursday night in Cincinnati after never trailing until the final whistle. The Titans opened at -7.5 but this spread was bet down to four points, where it stayed from Monday to Tuesday, one of the largest NFL Week 5 differentials between the opening and current number. On Wednesday, buyback moved the Titans to -4.5 at select books and held there on Thursday but reached five points at a couple books on Friday and stayed the same through Saturday.
  • The Lions received early action, bumping down the spread from +8 to +7.5 at the Vikings. Detroit spread bets had value over a touchdown and Lions +7.5 was widely available on Tuesday. Wednesday saw significant action backing the Vikings, moving to -8, -8.5 and -9. Come Thursday, more money hit Minnesota, moving them to consensus -10 across the market, which held through Saturday night.
  • Bettors made the Steelers a short home favorite against the Broncos after books opened Denver -2. This spread held at Steelers -1 or -1.5 through Wednesday night, but by Thursday some shops listed this game at a “pick’ em.” By Friday, the Broncos were a short road favorite at all books and have stayed that way since.
  • Sportsbooks opened the PackersBengals game at three points and the majority of Monday action took the points on the road team, moving Green Bay to -3.5. Buyback hit the Bengals hard at +3.5 on Tuesday, shifting the spread back to the opening number across the board, where it held at all books except DraftKings and FOX Bet, which made the first move to 2.5 points.
  • The Patriots opened -7.5 traveling to the Houston Texans, and early bettors didn’t shy from backing them up to -9 or -9.5. As of Wednesday, some sportsbooks moved the spread away from the Patriots high-water mark of -9.5, going as low as -8, which was still the mark on Friday. By early Sunday morning, the Patriots dropped to -7.5 at three sportsbooks.
  • Ahead of the Raiders-Chargers Monday night game to cap Week 4, the Raiders opened -7 hosting the Bears in Week 5 but early money backed the Bears, dropping the spread to five or 5.5 points. By Thursday the market was 5.5, holding there through Friday. DraftKings was the only book early Sunday morning to move the Raiders down to -5.
  • Browns at Chargers opened as a pick ’em and the market was split early on Monday, moving Cleveland or Los Angeles to -1 depending upon the book. By Tuesday, every book had the Chargers favored, albeit slightly at -1 or -1.5. A Wednesday wave of Chargers money at some books moved them to -2.5 and by Thursday the spread in the -1 to -1.5 range was completely erased. The Chargers had yet to hit -3 on Friday and Saturday.
  • Early money backing the Giants moved the spread away from Cowboys -8.5 to -7, where it stayed on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, PointsBet offered Giants +7.5 on Wednesday and Thursday. DraftKings gave Cowboys backers a value shot on Thursday, dropping the spread to -6.5 but that was gone on Friday. As of early Sunday morning, the spread was a consensus seven points.
  • The Cardinals‘ convincing road victory against the previously undefeated Rams shot their Week 5 opening number against the 49ers from -2.5 to -5.5 and up to six points at BetMGM, another one of the largest spread movements for NFL Week 5. BetMGM on Tuesday fell in line with the rest of that market at Cardinals -5.5, which held across the board sans BetRivers dropping the Cardinals to -5. By Thursday, Cardinals -5.5 was non-existent and the spread fell at some places to -4.5. Saturday action brought this spread back to -5 and -5.5.
  • Early bettors scoffed at the Chiefs favored by four points hosting the Bills, quickly moving the spread down through a key number of three. Most books continued to offer the Chiefs -2.5 on Tuesday, encouraging immediate buyback on Mahomes & Co. to cover by at least a field goal. By Wednesday, the eight above-listed books were split with half keeping the Chiefs -2.5 and the others moving the spread to three points. Thursday was much the same, with only one -2.5 spread moving to -3. On Friday, the market again was split. As of Sunday morning, Chiefs -2.5 only was available at DraftKings, BetMGM and FOX Bet.
  • The favored Ravens opened just under a key number of seven hosting the Colts. Money quickly pushed them to -7 but by Wednesday a couple books listed the spread under that key number, offering Ravens backers -6.5, as was the case on Thursday and through Friday. Ravens -6.5 was available only at DraftKings on Sunday morning.

About the author:

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Mario Sanelli writes about sports betting for BeerLife Sports. He previously was the editorial assistant and a general-assignment reporter at The Denver Post for five years after serving as chief editor of The Metropolitan at MSU Denver. Mario was a NFL and college football insider with Mile High Sports for six years.

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