2021 NFL Week 4 Lines and Movement

157
2021 NFL Week 4 Lines and Movement

Sportsbooks released their point spreads for the Week 4 slate well before Week 3 capped with the Eagles at Cowboys in Jerryworld.

By comparing the opening point spreads for Week 4, which were released on Tuesday, Sept. 21, to the current numbers, the charts below show where money is influencing games.  

These charts are updated as spreads continually change on a daily basis, so check back as we detail and dissect the action. 

Here’s a look at the top two tiers of sportsbooks and where the value lies within the current numbers as of Saturday night:

TIER ONE

NFL WEEK 4 GAMESOPENING FAV. 9/27DRAFTKINGSFANDUELBETMGMCAESARS
TNF: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21Bengals -4.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5
Football Team at FalconsFalcons -2.5Football Team -1.5Football Team -1.5Football Team -1.5Football Team -1.5
Lions at BearsBears -5Bears -3Bears -3Bears -3Bears -3
Titans at JetsTitans -7Titans -6Titans -6Titans -6Titans -6
Browns at VikingsBrowns -2.5Browns -1Browns -1Browns -1.5Browns -1
Colts at DolphinsDolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5
Panthers at CowboysCowboys -5.5Cowboys -4Cowboys -4Cowboys -4.5Cowboys -4
Giants at SaintsSaints -6.5Saints -7Saints -7Saints -7.5Saints -7
Chiefs at EaglesChiefs -6.5Chiefs -7Chiefs -7Chiefs -7Chiefs -6.5
Texans at BillsBills -16.5Bills -17.5Bills -17.5Bills -17.5Bills -17.5
Cardinals at RamsRams -4.5Rams -4.5Rams -4.5Rams -4Rams -4
Seahawks at 49ers49ers -3.549ers -2.549ers -2.549ers -2.549ers -2.5
Ravens at BroncosRavens -1.5Ravens -1Ravens -1Ravens -1Ravens -1
Steelers at Packers Packers -6.5Packers -6.5Packers -6.5Packers -6.5Packers -6
SNF: Buccaneers at PatriotsBuccaneers -5.5Buccaneers -7Buccaneers -7Buccaneers -7Buccaneers -7
MNF: Raiders at ChargersChargers -3Chargers -3Chargers -3Chargers -3Chargers -3
Odds as of Saturday, Oct. 2. Updated once daily

TIER TWO

NFL WEEK 4 GAMESOPENING FAV. 9/27BETRIVERSBETFREDFOX BETPOINTSBET
TNF: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21Bengals -4.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5Bengals -7.5
Football Team at FalconsFalcons -2.5Football Team -1.5Football Team -2Football Team -1.5Football Team -1.5
Lions at BearsBears -5Bears -3Bears -3Bears -3Bears -3
Titans at JetsTitans -7Titans -6Titans -6.5Titans -6Titans -6
Browns at VikingsBrowns -2.5Browns -1Browns -1Browns -1Browns -1
Colts at DolphinsDolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5Dolphins -2.5
Panthers at CowboysCowboys -5.5Cowboys -4.5Cowboys -4Cowboys -4Cowboys -4
Giants at SaintsSaints -6.5Saints -7Saints -7Saints -7Saints -7
Chiefs at EaglesChiefs -6.5Chiefs -7Chiefs -6.5Chiefs -6.5Chiefs -6.5
Texans at BillsBills -16.5Bills -17.5Bills -17Bills -17.5Bills -17
Cardinals at RamsRams -4.5Rams -4.5Rams -5Rams -4.5Rams -4
Seahawks at 49ers49ers -3.549ers -249ers -2.549ers -2.549ers -2.5
Ravens at BroncosRavens -1.5Ravens -1Pick ’emRavens -1Ravens -1
Steelers at PackersPackers -6.5Packers -6.5Packers -6Packers -6.5Packers -6
SNF: Buccaneers at PatriotsBuccaneers -5.5Buccaneers -6.5Buccaneers -6.5Buccaneers -7Buccaneers -7
MNF: Raiders at ChargersChargers -3Chargers -3.5Chargers -3.5Chargers -3Chargers -3
Odds as of Saturday, Oct. 2. Updated once daily

As of Saturday night:

The Bengals opened the Week 4 slate with a field goal as time expired to beat the Jaguars, 24-21, on Thursday night. The spread for this game closed at Bengals -7.5 after opening at -4.5. The Jaguars led 14-0 at halftime and never trailed in the game until the final score. Money continually pushed this spread in the Bengals’ favor, and past a key number of seven, giving Jags backers an extra half-point (7.5) by Wednesday and Thursday.

Nine Week 4 games opened on or around the key numbers in betting NFL point spreads.

  • The Falcons were a 2.5-point favorite hosting Washington but the line flipped by Tuesday morning to the Football Team as a short road favorite of -1.5. The spread has held there across the market throughout the week with the Football Team favored -2 only at Betfred. No buyback money has hit the Falcons to drop the spread away from Washington.
  • The Titans opened on a key number of -7 and moved early to -7.5 at most books. Betfred and FOX Bet went to Titans -8. Since sitting at Titans -7.5 for most of the week, the market moved back to the opener of -7 on Thursday and fell to under -7 at all books by Friday, when Titans receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown were ruled out for Sunday’s game.
  • The favored Browns sat either at the opening number of -2.5 or dropped to -2. BetMGM had the lowest listing across the market at Browns -1.5 early on. By Saturday, the market moved to Browns -1 at all books except BetMGM, which held at -1.5.
  • The Dolphins are at a high-water mark of -2.5 across the board. Books had fluctuated this spread between 1.5 and two points throughout the week.
  • The Saints quickly moved through -7 after opening at -6.5 and were bet up to -8 at most books early in the week. Now the market sits at Saints -7 or -7.5 as value at -6.5 hasn’t reappeared since the opener.
  • The Chiefs opened -6.5 at Philadelphia and were -7 across the market, reaching -7.5 on Thursday before Eagles buyback money at that number bumped the spread back to seven points. A hidden gem for Chiefs backers on Friday was at Betfred, posting Chiefs -6.5. Caesars, FOX Bet and PointsBet joined at that number on Saturday.
  • The 49ers opened at -3.5 and fell to -3 and -2.5 hosting the Seahawks. The market was split around a key number, with some holding Niners -2.5 and others staying at -3. Now the Niners are under three points across the market. The Seahawks’ value was at the opening number, as no books throughout the week reached +3.5 for the road team and have continually fallen away from three points.
  • SteelersPackers is discrepant across the market at a key number. Earlier this week, some books moved Packers to -7 but never hit -7.5. Now, all books list this spread under seven points.
  • Books opened RaidersChargers at -3 for the home team and adjusted to Chargers -3.5 across the market early on. BetRivers went to Chargers -4. Now, the market is at at three-point majority with only BetRivers and Betfred at Raiders +3.5.

A look at other notable Week 4 games:

  • The favored Bears dropped from an opener of -5 to -3, and briefly hit -2.5 at BetRivers and PointsBet. Bears value at under a field goal has since disappeared and has leveled off at -3.
  • The Cowboys opened at -5.5 and fell to -4.5 or -4. The majority of books held the Cowboys at -4.5 late in the week, while BetRivers and Betfred went to -5 on Friday and back into the four-point range by Saturday.
  • For the biggest spread on the Week 4 board, early bettors laid 16.5 points on the home-team Bills. That number is long gone with the Bills consistently at -17 or -17.5. Books offering Texans +17.5 have value on the underdog as 17 is a fringe key number.
  • The Rams approached key-number territory early, moving to a high mark of -6. Since then, the marked shifted back closer to the opening number of -4.5 and is at -5 only at Betfred.
  • Much like the Football Team-Falcons game, the opening favorite Ravens flipped to a short dog in Denver by Tuesday and into Wednesday. That’s when the Ravens went back to a short favorite at most books, with others keeping the Broncos -1 or moving this game to a pick ’em. Betfred now is the only book at a pick ’em with the rest of the market at Ravens -1. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported late Saturday night that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, listed as “questionable” for Sunday due to a back injury, is expected to play.
  • The Buccaneers by Friday were -7 at all books for their Sunday night game in Foxborough. Tampa Bay hasn’t hit -7.5 despite incredibly lopsided money backing the Bucs. ESPN staff writer David Purdum reported, “As of Thursday at Caesars Sportsbook, only 2% of the point spread bets that had been placed, and 3% of the money that had been wagered, were on the Patriots.” By Saturday night, BetRivers and Betfred dropped below a key number, listing the Bucs at -6.5. Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski won’t play after breaking ribs in last Sunday’s road loss to the Rams.

This weekly article aims to be a guide that documents how point spreads move throughout a given week. And within that, where and when value arises based upon the key numbers of NFL point-spread betting. For more in-depth analysis on picks and predictions for games every week of the season, visit our staff’s wealth of information on NFL and football cheat sheets.

About the author:

+ posts

Mario Sanelli writes about sports betting for BeerLife Sports. He previously was the editorial assistant and a general-assignment reporter at The Denver Post for five years after serving as chief editor of The Metropolitan at MSU Denver. Mario was a NFL and college football insider with Mile High Sports for six years.

Leave a Reply